Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXUS64 KEPZ 260530
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1130 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

 - Hot temperatures persisting through the rest of July and into
   early August. Lowland highs 100 to 105 each afternoon, posing a
   risk of heat-related illnesses.

 - Thunderstorm chances will remain highest over the high
   elevations and Southwest New Mexico into next week. Brief heavy
   rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding will be
   possible each afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Persistent upper high over the Southern Rockies will remain fixed
over the region through at least the remainder of late July,
driving the weather pattern through the week ahead. GFS 500-mb
height anomalies suggest this high is 3-4 standard deviations
stronger than is typical for the middle of the North America
Monsoon. The pattern is not favorable for widespread rain, as any
storms that do form will be mostly driven by recycled moisture
and convective temperatures/terrain forcing producing meager
instability. Precipitable water values are just over an inch
through much of central New Mexico, with drier air across far west
Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again across the
southern NM high elevations and portions of the southwest New
Mexico lowlands. El Paso/Las Cruces should remain dry. Main threat
will be localized flash flooding, as storm motions remain very
slow if not stationary and capable of 1-2 inch/hour rainfall
rates.

Hot temperatures will also continue into the week ahead due to
this suffocating upper ridge. Highs will run 5-10 degrees above
normal for late July, which means lowland highs in the 100 to 105
degree range. Another Heat Advisory will need to be considered
for El Paso and Rio Grande Valley this week.

Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high for
Tuesday onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable
day-to- day changes with sensible weather elements. Overall
weather pattern will continue to be warmer-than-normal
temperatures and isolated rain chances focused mainly around the
southern NM high elevations. GFS/ECMWF both agree in a slight
retrograde of the upper high as we head into the first week of
August, which is still a poor weather pattern for rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high
clouds. A widespread cu field is anticipated to develop during the
morning, w/afternoon convection possible KDMN/KTCS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through
the next several days. Thunderstorms will favor the Gila wilderness
and Sacramento mountains, as well as the boot heel of NM with
more sparse storm activity only occasionally making it into lower
deserts of southwestern NM. Temperatures will be hot in lower
elevation deserts with minimum RH of 15 to 20% being common in the
afternoons. Wind concerns will be limited to thunderstorm
outflows on localized scales for brief time frames.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80 103  80 104 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            70  98  71 100 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               73 100  73 102 /  10  10  10   0
Alamogordo               75  99  76 102 /  10  20  10   0
Cloudcroft               56  75  57  78 /  20  40  10  20
Truth or Consequences    75 100  74 101 /  30  10  10   0
Silver City              67  93  66  93 /  30  30  10  40
Deming                   74 102  73 102 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                73  99  72  98 /  20  10  20  10
West El Paso Metro       81 102  80 104 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City                74 101  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             78 104  78 105 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               72  95  72  97 /   0  10  10   0
Fabens                   78 103  78 104 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             77 100  77 102 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           80 101  80 103 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            76 100  76 102 /  10  10  10   0
Hatch                    75 103  75 105 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus                 78 103  77 103 /   0   0  10   0
Orogrande                75  99  74 101 /   0  10  10   0
Mayhill                  61  87  61  90 /  10  30  10  20
Mescalero                60  87  61  90 /  20  40  10  10
Timberon                 59  85  59  88 /  10  30  10  10
Winston                  64  91  63  92 /  50  40  10  30
Hillsboro                72  97  71  99 /  40  20  10  20
Spaceport                73 100  72 101 /  30  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             62  93  61  93 /  40  30  10  50
Hurley                   68  97  68  97 /  30  20  10  40
Cliff                    69  98  68  98 /  40  20  20  40
Mule Creek               67  94  66  95 /  30  20  10  30
Faywood                  70  96  69  96 /  30  20  10  30
Animas                   73  99  72  98 /  20  10  30  10
Hachita                  72  99  71  98 /  10  10  30  10
Antelope Wells           71  98  70  97 /  10  20  30  30
Cloverdale               67  92  66  91 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99