Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

946
FXUS64 KEPZ 261123
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
523 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

 - Record March warmth on Thursday. Lowland high temperatures in
   the lower to mid nineties. Near Critical fire weather
   conditions in the afternoon due to extremely dry air and breezy
   west winds.

 - Backdoor cold front arriving Friday morning. Cooler
   temperatures, gusty east winds, and blowing dust possible.

 - Slight chance of rain showers Sunday and Monday, limited
   mostly to western New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Upper high directly overhead tonight, making a very slow eastward
crawl. Continued record March warmth and extremely dry conditions
on Thursday. Lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s are 20 to 25
degrees warmer than normal for late March, and will likely break
daily records again Thursday afternoon. Weak shortwave crossing
the Southern Rockies to our north on Thursday will allow winds to
pick up out of the west. 995 mb lee surface low development over
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle will promote west flow 15 to 20 mph
for much of southern New Mexico. This isn`t a big concern for
most, but will play a role in fire weather given the abnormal
warmth and dryness.

Strong 1040mb surface high will nose down into the Northern
Plains Friday morning, pushing a strong cold front southward
across the High Plains. This is yet another unseasonably strong
cold front, reaching Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas early
Friday morning. Gusty east winds, cooler temperatures, and
possibly blowing dust on Friday. Wind speeds may approach Advisory
criteria across West Texas and the Otero Mesa, with gusts up to
45 mph possible along west slopes. Current guidance shows a 15 to
25 degree cooling in temperatures (lowland highs mid to upper
70s), which knocks us back down to "normal". Recent backdoor cold
fronts have kicked up quite a bit of dust over Eastern NM and West
TX, so El Paso may be hazy that afternoon. Cool, east flow
continues on Saturday, though lighter than Friday. Temperatures
will remain near normal, but will feel much cooler given the
recent record warmth.

Upper high shifts east this weekend, leaving us in a south flow
regime and allowing a fetch of moisture out of the Gulf of
California into Arizona/New Mexico. Slight precipitation chances
Sunday and Monday given marginal instability and precipitation
water 0.50-0.75". Best rain chances look to favor portions of
western New Mexico where moisture is a bit more favorable. Any
rain that does fall will be very light and low QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected beneath SKC-FEW250. Winds will start
off light and variable, but around 17z or so will become westerly
(250-280) for all sites. Speeds will peak between 10 and 15 knots
with gusts as high as 25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 520 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
today. Afternoon min RH values will drop well into the single-
digits for all but the highest elevations while afternoon highs
finish 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Twenty-foot winds will
increase to the 15 to 20 MPH range this afternoon thanks to a
compact s/w trough passing across Northern NM and Southern CO. The
strongest winds are expected across the Gila, and a Red Flag
Warning is in effect for that zone. The winds will foster very
good to excellent vent rates across nearly all areas.

Early Friday morning a cold front will begin moving through South
Central and Southwest NM and Far West TX with breezy to windy
conditions behind it, especially for west facing slopes and ridge
lines. With the cooler air albeit seasonal, there will be
improvements in afternoon RH values with mid teens to lower 20s
expected. For areas near the AZ border, temperatures will be a
little warmer with min RH values below 15%. Thus, combining with
the breezy winds, some localized areas may near or exceed critical
thresholds for a few hours Friday afternoon.

Saturday will feature seasonal temperatures but warmer conditions
arrive for Sunday. Min RH values will bottom out in the teens each
afternoon. A few showers are possible for Sunday and Monday,
mainly west of the Continental Divide, but rainfall amounts will
be very light for any location lucky enough to see a shower. There
will be some modest instability, which means there will be a low
risk (around 10%) for dry lightning, especially on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  56  75  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            52  69  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               53  79  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               50  77  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               37  50  26  56 /   0  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    55  75  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              51  79  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   51  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  83  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       58  76  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                48  69  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             53  78  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               52  66  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   54  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  76  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  80  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            49  81  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    50  84  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 55  82  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                50  76  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  40  57  29  69 /   0  10   0   0
Mescalero                40  60  29  66 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                 42  59  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  43  69  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                55  76  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  78  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             45  77  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   48  78  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    45  87  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               47  84  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  53  76  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   51  84  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  50  82  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  82  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               56  80  45  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown